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Thailand 2025/26: Sharp Drop in Wheat Imports, Rice Exports Remain Strong
Arabfields, Jamel derbal, Senior Correspondent, Innovation & Sustainability, Singapore — Thailand’s grain and feed market continues to adjust to a combination of recovering domestic feed grain production, comfortable carry-over stocks, and resilient global demand for its flagship rice exports. According to the latest Grain and Feed Annual report released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service in Bangkok, the kingdom is heading into marketing year 2025/26 with two markedly different trajectories for its major cereals: a significant contraction in wheat imports and sustained strength in rice shipments.
The most notable shift is expected on the wheat side. After several years of elevated imports driven by tight domestic maize supplies and high international maize prices, Thailand’s wheat purchases are forecast to fall to 3.2 million metric tons in 2025/26, down from an estimated 4.1 million tons in the current 2024/25 marketing year and well below the peak levels seen in 2022/23 and 2023/24. This projected decline of more than 20 percent in a single year reflects two converging factors that are finally easing pressure on the Thai compound feed industry.
First, maize production is staging a solid comeback. Favorable weather, improved seed varieties, and attractive farm-gate prices have encouraged Thai farmers to expand planted area and boost yields. The USDA now expects the 2025/26 maize crop to reach levels not seen since before the multi-year drought and price slump that had previously pushed millers and feed manufacturers to substitute cheaper imported wheat. With local maize again becoming both abundant and competitively priced, the economic incentive to import wheat as an energy source in animal rations is rapidly disappearing.
Second, Thailand enters the new marketing year with unusually high carry-in stocks of both maize and wheat. Consecutive years of heavy importing, combined with somewhat softer feed demand growth as the livestock sector consolides after the post-COVID recovery, have left elevators and feed mills comfortably stocked. These surplus inventories will need to be worked off before aggressive fresh purchases resume, further depressing import requirements well into calendar 2026.
The net result is that major wheat suppliers, particularly Australia, the Black Sea region, and to a lesser extent the United States, can expect a quieter Thai market for at least the next eighteen months. Traders who had grown accustomed to Thailand absorbing 4.5 to 5 million tons annually during the peak substitution period will need to redirect tonnage elsewhere, most likely toward price-sensitive markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
In stark contrast, Thailand’s rice trade remains a picture of resilience and moderate growth. The same report projects calendar 2025 rice exports at 7.5 million metric tons, roughly in line with the revised 2024 figure and only marginally below the 7.7 to 8 million tons shipped in the record years preceding the 2023 El Niño drought. This stability is all the more impressive given the global supply shocks that have affected major competitors.
While India continues to restrict exports of non-basmati white rice and Vietnam and Pakistan grapple with their own weather-related challenges, Thailand has managed to maintain its reputation for consistent quality and reliable delivery of both fragrant and white rice varieties. Strong demand from traditional markets in the Middle East, Africa, and increasingly from China under the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area framework continues to absorb most of the kingdom’s surplus. At the same time, government stock releases and relatively attractive domestic paddy prices have kept mills well supplied without the wild price spikes seen in 2022 and early 2023.
Looking further ahead, several trends suggest that the wheat import downturn may prove more than a one-season correction. If Thailand’s maize area continues to expand in response to firm demand from the recovering swine sector and steady growth in poultry production, the kingdom could settle into a new normal of 3.0 to 3.5 million tons of annual wheat imports for the remainder of the decade, closer to pre-2021 levels. Any significant return above 4 million tons would likely require either a major weather failure in the Central Plains maize belt or a renewed surge in global maize prices that once again makes wheat substitution economically attractive.
On the rice front, the medium-term outlook remains cautiously optimistic. With the 2025/26 main crop now in the ground under generally favorable early monsoon conditions, and with government policy continuing to emphasize food security while allowing commercial exports, Thailand appears on track to defend its position as the world’s second or third largest rice exporter, depending on India’s evolving policy stance. A return to 8 million tons or higher cannot be ruled out if global prices stay supportive and if new off-season crop area in the northern provinces continues to expand.
In summary, Thailand’s grain economy in 2025/26 will be defined by rebalancing rather than expansion. Wheat trade is contracting as domestic feed grain supply catches up with demand, while rice exports hold steady on the back of quality, reliability, and well-timed absence of major competitors from certain market segments. For traders, millers, and policymakers alike, the coming year will serve as a clear reminder that even in one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic agricultural markets, periods of intense import substitution can give way surprisingly quickly to more historically typical patterns once local production and stocks regain their footing.
